机载导弹全弹系统寿命预测的仿真方法

针对机载导弹系统级寿命数据缺乏的问题，提出一种全弹系统寿命预测的仿真方法。首先，分析导弹关键寿命部件的主要寿命分布，对指数分布、威布尔分布、正态分布、对数正态分布4种常见寿命分布，给出寿命随机抽样公式；其次，分析机载导弹的组成结构，将关键寿命部件分为4种类型并与贮存可靠性结构中串联模型、并联模型、旁联模型相对应；然后，根据系统贮存可靠性结构建立全弹系统寿命预测模型，并将该方法应用于某型空空导弹的寿命预测。预测结果表明：该方法预测的可靠贮存寿命与实际统计数据一致，可信度较高，具有一定的实用性。

Simulation Method for Lifetime Prediction of Airborne Missile System

A simulation method for airborne missile’s lifetime prediction was proposed, in order to deal with the problem of lack of lifetime data in missile system level. Lifetime distribution of key components was analyzed, which includes exponential distribution, Weibull distribution, normal distribution and log-normal distribution. Lifetime sampling equations of those distributions were listed. According to missile’s structure, key components were categorized into 4 types corresponding with storage reliability serial model, parallel model and by-pass model. Lifetime data in system level was generated by key components’ sampled lifetime according to the system storage reliability structure. Then the generated system lifetime data was used to optimize lifetime distribution and calculate lifetime indicates. The predict result show that the method and the predicted storage lifetime well fitted the real statistic data, the predicated results is highly reliable, and the method is useful.