基于模糊集理论的储运发射箱故障树分析

针对传统的故障诊断中因缺少大量统计数据难以准确获得故障发生概率的问题，提出一种基于模糊集理论的故障树分析方法。利用故障树分析方法对储运发射箱故障进行研究，建立储运发射箱故障树模型。结合专家组对故障发生概率等级评定，对专家评定意见进行模糊化处理，将模糊集理论与专家评判相结合，获得事件的发生概率。对故障树进行分析，得到系统的顶事件模糊发生概率与各最小割集的模糊临界重要度。计算结果表明：该方法能够确定由各最小割集所引起顶事件发生的可能性大小，可为储运发射箱的故障诊断决策以及可靠性分析提供帮助。

Fault Tree Analysis of Launching Canister Based on Fuzzy Theory

Due to the lack of abundant data, the probability of failure cannot be obtained accurately in traditional fault diagnosis. To solve this problem, a new method based on fault tree analysis (FTA) with fuzzy set theory was provided. By FTA, a fault model of launching canister was constructed. Combining expert group to assess the probability of failure occurrence, fuzzy processing of expert opinion, combining fuzzy set theory and expert evaluation, to obtain the probability of occurrence of the event. The fault tree is analyzed to obtain the fuzzy critical importance of the top event probability and the minimum cut set of the system. The result showed that:the proposed method could confirm the possibility of top event caused by each minimal cutest and provide a support for the decision of fault diagnosis and reliability analysis of launching canister.