降雨入渗条件下镇巴县牛背梁滑坡风险评价

为了研究降雨强度对浅表层坡体失稳的影响程度,在野外详细地质勘察的基础之上,利用Geostudio软件对坡体在不同降雨工况下进行渗流场和稳定性模拟,研究相应工况下的稳定性系数和失稳概率,再通过定量化方法对极易失稳工况下的坡体进行风险评估,研究结果表明:只有完全饱和状态条件下的坡体才极易失稳,失稳概率高达48.93%,滑坡影响区内承灾体总价值为361.9万元,财产年损失83.24万元,单人年死亡概率8.7×10-2,即处于风险极高区。

Risk Assessment of Niubeiliang Landslide in Zhenba County under Rainfall Infiltration Conditions

In order to study the influence degree of rainfall intensity on the instability of superficial slope, based on the detailed geological survey in the field, the Geostudio software is used to simulate the seepage field and stability of the slope under different rainfall conditions, and study the stability coefficient and instability probability under the corresponding working conditions. then, the risk assessment of the slope under extremely unstable conditions through the quantitative method is carried out. The results show that the slope is only vulnerable to instability under fully saturated conditions. The probability of instability is as high as 48.93%. The total value of the disaster-bearing body in the landslide-affected area is 3.619 million yuan, the annual loss of property is 0.8324 million yuan, and the probability of single-person annual death is 8.7^*10^-2, which is in the extremely high risk area.