珠三角城市群用水量与经济增长的脱钩状态及其驱动因素研究

减轻经济增长对水资源消耗的依赖，对实现城市的可持续发展至关重要。以珠江三角洲城市群为研究对象，从整体和城市两个维度分析其水资源负载状况，采用Tapio脱钩模型分析2009-2019年经济增长与用水量的脱钩时空变化特征，并基于LMDI分解法探究影响因素的驱动效应。结果表明：研究期内珠三角城市群水资源负载较高，除肇庆、惠州、江门3市外，其他6市水资源负载等级均达到Ⅴ级；珠三角城市群强、弱脱钩状态占比为98.9%，部分城市则呈现强、弱脱钩交替状态；技术效应、产业结构、节水能力是珠三角城市群脱钩的主要驱动因素，单位水资源效益、人口规模则抑制了脱钩。本研究可为减少城市经济增长对水资源的依赖、实现区域可持续发展提供参考。

Decoupling state of water consumption and economic growth in the Pearl River Delta and its driving factors

Alleviating the dependence of economic growth on water resources consumption is crucial to the sustainable development of urban agglomerations. Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration as the research object, we discussed its water resources load index from the overall and urban dimensions, analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of the decoupling between economic growth and water consumption using the Tapio decoupling model, and explored the driving effect of influencing factors based on LMDI. The results show that the water resources load of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration was relatively high during the study period. Except Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen, the water resources load of the other six cities all reached grade V; the strong and weak decoupling status of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration accounted for 98.9%, some of the cities showed an alternating state of strong and weak decoupling; technological effect, industrial structure and water-saving capacity were the main driving factors for the decoupling of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, whereas the benefits of unit water resources and population size inhibited the decoupling. This study can provide a theoretical support for alleviating the dependence of urban economic growth on water resources and realizing regional sustainable development.