| 基于Copula函数推求的管运洪水防洪标准探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文圣,覃光华,梁瀚续,李深奇.基于Copula函数推求的管运洪水防洪标准探讨[J].水资源保护,2023,39(1):79-82. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文圣 覃光华 梁瀚续 李深奇 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学水利水电学院,四川 成都 610065;四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610065;四川省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川 成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510701)；国家自然科学基金(51679155) |
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| 摘 要： | 探讨了2种洪水风险理念，论述了现行防洪标准的含义及年标准洪水频率曲线的推求方法，提出了基于年标准洪水频率曲线诊断管运洪水防洪标准的新方法。介绍了基于Copula函数推求管运洪水的方法，研究了其风险结构。以马边河马边站洪水为例推求管运洪水，结果表明：基于Copula函数推求管运洪水选取的样本序列不完全符合防洪规范要求，所得到的管运洪水对应标准高于现行防洪标准，增大了洪水风险，会加大涉水工程的规模。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水风险 管运洪水 Copula函数 防洪标准 马边河 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/1/11 0:00:00 |
Probe on flood control standards of manage-flood based on Copula function |
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| WANG Wensheng,QIN Guanghu,LIANG Hanxu,LI Shenqi.Probe on flood control standards of manage-flood based on Copula function[J].Water Resources Protection,2023,39(1):79-82. |
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| Authors: | WANG Wensheng QIN Guanghu LIANG Hanxu LI Shenqi |
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| Affiliation: | College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Chengdu 610065, China; Sichuan Water Resources and Hydroelectric Investigation & Design Institute Limited Company, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Two concepts of flood risk are probed in this paper, and the exact meaning of current flood control standards and annual standard flood frequency curve are discussed. Based on annual standard flood frequency curve, a new method to diagnose flood control standards of the manage-flood is proposed. The approach of manage-flood calculation using Copula function is introduced, and its flood risk structure is studied. A case study of flood at Mabian station in the Mabian River shows that the sampling flood series in Copula function approach is not in accord with requirements of flood control; the obtained flood control standards of manage-flood exceed current flood control standards, flood risk would be increased, and water project scale would be enlarged. |
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| Keywords: | flood risk manage-flood Copula function flood control standards Mabian River |
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