人类活动影响下塔里木河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播的规律

为了解人类活动影响下塔里木河流域气象干旱向水文干旱传播的规律，基于标准化降水指数(SPI)和径流干旱指数(SDI)分析了气象、水文干旱的变化特征，探讨了人类活动对气象干旱向水文干旱传播规律的影响。研究结果表明：源流区气象、水文干旱均呈减弱趋势，干流气象干旱呈减弱趋势，水文干旱与之相反；随时间尺度增大，干旱历时延长；源流区气象、水文干旱以及干流气象干旱的发生频率受人类活动影响后(1993年后)均降低，仅干流水文干旱的发生频率升高；受人类活动影响后，源流区不同季节气象干旱向水文干旱的传播时间均变长，干流干旱传播时间除春季外均缩短；源流区干旱传播时间延长与气候变化有关，而干流干旱传播时间缩短主要是受人类活动的影响。

Propagation law from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin under the impact of human activities

In order to understand the propagation law from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin under the impact of human activities, the variation characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought were analyzed based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and streamflow drought index (SDI), and the impact of human activities on the propagation law from meteorological drought to hydrological drought was discussed. The results show that the meteorological and hydrological drought in the source region both show a weakening trend. While in the mainstream region, the meteorological drought shows a weakening trend and the hydrological drought is the opposite. As the time scale increases, the drought duration increases. After being affected by human activities (after 1993), the occurrence frequency of meteorological and hydrological drought in the source region as well as the meteorological drought in the mainstream region all decrease only with the occurrence frequency of hydrological drought in the mainstream region increasing. After being affected by human activities, the propagation time from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in different seasons in the source region becomes longer, but the drought propagation time in the mainstream region is shortened except in spring. The extension of drought propagation time in the source region is related to climate change, while the shortened drought propagation time in the mainstream region is mainly affected by human activities.