电动汽车发展态势评价体系及方法研究

电动汽车是我国交通领域清洁替代的重要工具，其高质量发展对交通领域低碳化发展至关重要。电动汽车发展是全局性、系统性和长远性工作，涉及政府、企业、用户等多元主体，包含政策、研发、生产、运营、回收等各个环节。电动汽车发展态势评价体系需要统筹考虑相关因素，准确定位电动汽车在城市中的发展趋势，为城市制定电动汽车发展政策提供支撑。通过充分考虑电动汽车发展中的政策链、技术链、产业链，从政策支撑、技术发展、市场规模、配套建设、商业生态5个维度，提出电动汽车发展态势评价指标体系，结合定量分析和专家打分法等给出各指标体系评估方法，基于层次分析法提出电动汽车发展态势评价方法。最后，以江苏省为例，给出江苏省电动汽车发展状态各指标的值，并与上海市相关评价对比给出江苏省电动汽车发展建议。

Evaluation system and method of electric vehicle development trend

Electric vehicle is an important tool for clean replacement in the field of transportation in China, and its high-quality development is crucial to the low- carbon development in the field of transportation. The development of electric vehicles is an overall, systematic and long-term work, involving the government,enterprises, users and other multiple subjects, including policy, research and development, production, operation, recycling and other links. The evaluation system of electric vehicle development situation needs to consider relevant factors as a whole, accurately position the development trend of electric vehicles in the city, and provide support for the city to formulate electric vehicle development policies. The policy chain, technology chain and industry chain in the development of electric vehicles are considered, and the evaluation index system of the development trend of electric vehicles from the five dimensions of policy support, technology development, market scale, supporting construction and business ecology is put forward. Combined with quantitative analysis and expert scoring method, the evaluation methods of each index system are given, and the evaluation method of the development trend of electric vehicles based on analytic hierarchy process. Finally, taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the values of various indicators of the development status of electric vehicles in Jiangsu Province are given, and compared with the relevant evaluation of Shanghai, the development suggestions of electric vehicles in Jiangsu Province are given.