柳南地区石油地质储量计算的概率分析

目前国内进行石油地质储量计算的方法主要是容积法,该方法计算结果受6个储量参数控制。Warren概率分析认为,容积法储量参数的乘积服从正态分布,因此可以通过求取一些特征参数,得到储量的概率分布,从而进一步得到油藏储量较可靠的期望值。利用上述方法,选取、确定储量参数的最大、最可能、最小值,计算了柳南地区9号、12号小层概率为84.1%的石油地质储量,计算结果与容积法储量计算结果基本一致,从概率角度肯定了容积法储量计算结果的可靠性。

PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF GEOLOGICAL RESERVES CALCULATION IN PETROLEUM FROM LIUNAN REGION

The basic method used in the calculation of China's petroleum geological reserves is volumetric method.The calculatoin results of the method is controlled by six reserve parameters.Warren probability analysis indicates that the products of reserve parameters of volumetric method show normal distribution,hence the probability distribution of the reserve could be obtained by the calculation of characteristic parameters,and reliable expectation value of petroluem reserve could also be obtained.The maximum,the minimum and most possible values of reserve parameters were selected to calcuate the probability of the No.9 and No.12 mini beds in Liunan region,the results is 84.1%,which basically coincides with that calculated by volumetric method.