基于可拓模糊理论的区域电力市场条件合理性分析和预警机制研究

根据断面输电能力将区域电力市场划分为若干个安全区，从市场条件满足电力供需平衡和有效竞争的角度，结合模糊数学理论，运用可拓学的物元理论、可拓集合论和关联函数，构建了评价每个安全区市场条件合理性的经典物元和节域物元。通过计算待评安全区与各合理性等级的关联度确定了该安全区市场条件的合理性程度，并分析了该方法的预警作用。以东北区域电力市场为例，验证了所提出的可拓模糊理论综合评价方法和预警机制的合理性。

Extensible Fuzzy Theory Based Rationality Assessment of Regional Electricity Market Condition and Research on Forewarning Mechanism

A regional electricity market is divided into several secure zones according to transmission capacity of tie-lines;from the viewpoint of both effective competition and balance of power supply and demand,combining with the theory of fuzzy mathematics and applying the matter element theory in extension theory and extensible set theory as well as correlation function,the classical matter element and joint domain matter element to assess the market condition reationality of each secure zone are constructed.By means of computing the correlation degree among a certain secure zone to be assessed and reationality grades,the rationality degree of the market condition of this secure zone is determined and the forewarning effect of the proposed method is analyzed.Taking Northeast electricity market for example,the raionality of the proposed extensible fuzzy therory based comprehensive assessment method and that of the proposed forewarning mechanism are varified.