| 多步自适应组合预测及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘劲松.多步自适应组合预测及其应用[J].佳木斯工学院学报,2009(4):535-537. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘劲松 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省信息中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出一种多步自适应组合预测方法.预测由多个并行不同的多步自适应预测模型组成,最终预测结果,由多个预测模型预测值的线性加权组合决定.本法适用于随机时变动态系统过程的多步预测问题,在某省粮食产量趋势预测中,应用此法获得了良好的效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 自校正预测 多层递阶预测 组合预测 粮食产量 |
Adaptive Combination of Multi- step Forecast and Its Application |
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| Authors: | LIU Jin-song |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Jin-song (Information Center of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030, China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a combination of multi - step adaptive forecast system was presented. The system was composed of a number of different parallel adaptive multi - step forecast models, and the final results were determined by a number of forecast models to predict the value of weighted linear combination. This system can be applied to a random process of time - varying dynamic system of multi - step forecast problem. In a forecast of food production trend in a certain province, some effective results were obtained. |
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| Keywords: | gray forecast self- tuning predicted multi- Level recursive forecast combination forecast grain yield |
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