区域先导产业选择的质量方法与实证研究——以湖北省制造业为例

先导产业的培育与发展关系到未来5~10年乃至更长时间我国能否保持经济持续增长和实现产业结构转型升级。本研究界定了先导产业的定义、内涵及主要特征,基于产业选择的逻辑和理论,引入产业发展质量维度评估,提出了区域先导产业选择和培育的质量方法。基于此评估方法,以湖北省制造业细分产业为研究对象,从产业基础能力、技术创新水平、产业发展质量、产业增长潜力等维度实证分析和评估湖北未来重点培育先导产业类别。本研究期望通过积极培育未来先导产业,推动传统优势产业转型升级以化解其产能过剩问题。同时,提出了促进湖北省未来先导产业快速发展的政策建议,可为其他区域的先导产业发展提供参考借鉴和实践价值。

The Quality Method and the Empirical Study on the Selection of Regional Leading Industry--Taking the Manufacturing Industries in Hubei Province as an Example

The cultivation and development of leading industries is related to the issue whether China can maintain a sustained economic growth and realize its objective of transforming and upgrading its industrial structure in the next five to ten years or in an even longer period.Based on the logic and theory of industrial selection,this paper introduces the quality dimension evaluation of industry development,putting forward the quality method for the selection and cultivation of regional leading industries.Based on this evaluation method,the leading industry selection index system is constructed with the advantageous manufacturing industries in Hubei Province as the research objects.The paper then makes an empirical analysis and verification of the leading industries in Hubei Province from the four aspects of industrial basic ability,technological innovation level,industrial development quality and industrial growth potential.This study is hoped to be able to handle the problem of overcapacity by actively cultivating future leading industries and promoting the high quality development of the traditional competitive industries.At the same time,it also puts forward policy suggestions for the promotion of the rapid development of the leading industries in Hubei Province in the future,which can also provide reference and practical value for the development of the leading industries in other regions.