小波时间序列在空调负荷预测中的应用

提出将小波分析和时间序列应用于空调负荷预测;利用小波分析可以将空调负荷序列通过小波分解一层一层分解到不同的频率通道上,分解后序列的平稳性比原始序列好得多.其小波分解后的序列用时间序列模型来预测,最后再合成得到原时间序列的预测值.预测结果表明,该模型应用于空调负荷预测具有较高的预测精度,而且明显优于传统的时间序列模型.

Application of Wavelet Analysis and Time Series in Air Conditioning Load Forecasting

A new method that applies wavelet analysis and time series theory to air conditioning load forecasting was presented. By wavelet decomposing, air conditioning load series was decomposed into many series which are better than the original ones; and by building up time - series model for forecasting of each series and recomposing the result. It was showed that the method has good quality in terms of prediction precision, besides, it also was indicated that this models is more approximate to realities in comparison with general time series model.