中国碳排放增长的宏观因素及可持续增长模式选择

基于1990～2007年时间序列数据,通过构建碳排放与经济增长各宏观因素关系的C-D函数模型,分析得出:技术进步、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物及服务净出口对我国碳排放年增长率的贡献额,最终消费支出和技术进步对碳排放增长有抑制效果.根据这一结论,将我国经济发展分为"高增长,高效率","低增长,低效率","低增长,高效率","高增长,低效率"4种发展模式.由于消费和技术进步是拉动经济增长的强大动力,因此扩大内需和促进技术创新是我国实现可持续发展的必然途径.

The Macro-Factor of the Growth of Crbon Emission and the Way to Realize Sustainable Growth Model in China

Using the time series data from 1990 to 2007,the authors use Cobb-Dauglas function,and estimate the contribution rate of technology,consumption,investment and net export to carbon emission.The average growing rate of carbon emission is 6.10%,thereinto,the contribution rate of technology is-32.86% and GDP is 38.96%.Based on the contribution rate of technology and the growth rate of GDP,the authors define the following four economic growth modes,thehigh growth with high efficiency,low growth with low efficien...