清光绪初年山西极端干旱事件重建与分析

基于清宫雨雪分寸记录和现代农业气象站资料，利用水量平衡原理与土壤物理入渗模型，定量重建了清光绪初年（1875-1878年）极端干旱背景下山西省95个县区的季、年降水量，验证了重建结果的可靠性。基于重建降水量，利用降水距平百分率干旱指数分析了极端干旱的时空演变过程。结果表明：在时间上，1875-1877年为连续三年大旱，且呈逐年加重趋势，其中，1877年为极端干旱年；季节性连旱明显，1875年夏秋冬连旱，1876-1877年夏秋连旱，其中1877年最为严重，出现全省性重旱、特旱。在空间上，干旱分布大致经历了由中东部地区和西部地区演变至北部，再到南部和中东部地区的过程，其中中东部和南部地区干旱最为严重。历史典型场次极端干旱事件的重建研究对于定量复原历史干旱事件具有重要的现实意义，在应对区域干旱巨灾风险方面具有重要的参考价值。

Reconstruction and analysis of the extreme drought event in Shanxi Province in early years of Emperor Guangxu of the Qing Dynasty

Based on the records of rainfall and snow from the archives in the Qing Dynasty (1875-1878AD) and the modern agricultural meteorological station data, and the water balance theory and the soil physical infiltration model were used to quantitatively reconstruct seasonal and annual precipitation in 95 counties of Shanxi Province against the extreme drought background in the early years of Emperor Guangxu in Qing Dynasty (1875-1878AD). Compared with the existing results, the reliability of the reconstruction results was verified. Based on the reconstructed precipitation, the drought index of the precipitation anomaly percentage (PA) was used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme drought. The research results show that:in terms of time,the period of 1875-1877 was a three-year drought,and it was increasing year by year. It was the most serious in 1877, an extremely dry year. The seasonal drought was obvious. In 1875, it was drought in summer-autumn-winter. In 1876 and 1877, drought of the summer-autumn was more serious. Specially in 1877,was the most severe,with heavy drought and extreme drought covering the whole province. In space, the drought distribution had experienced a process that had evolved from the central and eastern regions to the north and then to the south and central and eastern regions, with droughts occurring most severely in the central and eastern regions. The quantitative reconstruction of historical extreme drought events has important practical significance for the research of historical drought events,and important reference value in dealing with the risk of regional drought disasters.