| 基于Markov的工程承包风险因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李万庆,卫赵斌. 基于Markov的工程承包风险因素分析[J]. 电力建设, 2003, 24(5): 64-0 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李万庆 卫赵斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北建筑科技学院 河北省邯郸市,056038 |
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| 摘 要： | 在总结以往风险分析理论的基础上 ,通过对工程承包风险因素的辨识、估计 ,将Markov链应用于工程承包风险领域 ,对各个风险因素影响工程承包成败的大小及主要影响阶段进行评价 ,建立了工程承包风险因素评价模型。承包商可根据评价模型的分析结果 ,更有效地利用有限的资源 ,对承包项目中的各风险因素进行控制 ,节约人力、时间 ,达到承包企业提高经济效益 ,增强市场竞争力的目的 。
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| 关 键 词： | 工程承包 风险因素 风险辨识 Markov链 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7229(2003)05-0064-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-01-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-11-26 |
Analysis on Reasons of Engineering Contract Risk Based on Markov |
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| Li Wanqing,Wei Zhaobin. Analysis on Reasons of Engineering Contract Risk Based on Markov[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2003, 24(5): 64-0 |
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| Authors: | Li Wanqing Wei Zhaobin |
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| Abstract: | Based on the summarization of the past risk analysis theory and identification and estimation of the factors for engineering contract risk the Markov chains is used in the risk of engineering contract with evaluation of effect of various risk factors on the engineering contract, scale and main stages so as to establish an evaluation model for the risk factors of engineering risks. The contractors can analyze the results according to the model to more effectively use the limited resources and control the risk factors in the contracted projects to increase the capability of the market competition. [ |
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| Keywords: | engineering contract risk factors risk discrimination Markov chains |
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