梯级水电站群调度函数的模型与评价

针对梯级水电站群实际运行的优化调度指导需求,在多元线性回归算法基础上引入F检验和拟合优度检验判别机制,建立了基于梯级水电站优化调度的调度函数逐步优化算法,并将该算法应用于金沙江-长江大型梯级电站系统调度函数制定中,通过时间因子、空间因子和能量因子3类待选自变量的合理筛选,构建出具有指导梯级运行意义的梯级各电站优化调度函数.该函数形式简洁,具有良好的可操作性和可解释性.将用调度函数模拟梯级运行结果与同系列优化调度结果进行比较分析,结果表明调度函数指导梯级运行较好地保留了优化调度的各方面效益,具有较高的模拟精度和实用价值.

Model Establishment and Evaluation of Operation Function for Cascade Reservoirs

To meet the demand of actual optimized operation guidance for cascade reservoirs,the F-test and the goodness-of-fit test mechanism based on multiple linear regression algorithm are employed. Based on optimized operation result,cascading stepwise optimized dispatch function algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm is used to established the optimized dispatch functions for the Jinshajiang-Changjiang River cascade hydropower system. By selecting appropriate time,space and energy factors,the optimized dis...