天然气在中国向低碳能源过渡时期的关键作用

为了实现向低碳转型的目标，分别从能源耗量、资源量和碳排放约束3个不同角度分析了石油、煤和天然气这3种化石能源的博弈走势。结论指出：①从现在到2030年，天然气的总耗量将增长最快，在总能耗的占比也将不断攀升；②石油居一次能源首位的位置注定要被天然气取代；③天然气在中国低碳能源过渡时期具有节能减排、支撑经济增长、调峰和降低石油对外依存度的关键作用；④应快速、普及推广分布式冷热电联供能源系统，大力发展天然气汽车/船产业，此举可使中国新增部分的工业及建筑物能效提高一倍，碳排放减少70%，每年将减少1×10⁸ t的石油进口，保障经济发展所需的能源和电力供应，基本解决电网昼夜调峰问题，并且每年将节省数以万亿元计的投资，减少数亿吨的能耗。最后强调指出：能源低碳转型呼唤观念、政策和机制的转变。

The key role of natural gas at China’s historical period of transition toward a low carbon era

This paper makes a comparative analysis of the developing trend of oil, coal and natural gas in the next two decades in terms of energy consumption, resource reserves, and carbon emission restrictions. Up till 2030 in China, the cumulative natural gas consumption will be increasing at the fastest speed and its occupation ratio among the total energy consumption will also keep on rising. Oil will be ultimately replaced by natural gas as the first position in the future primary energy structure. At such a historical period of transition toward a low carbon economy, natural gas will play a key role in energy saving and emission reduction, supporting the economic increase, peak shaving, and decreasing the reliability of dependence on the imported oil. The wide application of CCHP and natural gas powered vehicles or boats will double the energy efficiency of the additional industries and building sector, reduce the carbon emission by 70%, and cut down 0.1 billion tons of annual imported oil. Additionally, the CCHP and DES will guarantee the economic development with enough energy and power supply, solve the problem of 24 hour peak shaving in electric power system, save the annual cost of several trillion Yuan of RMB, and reduce several million tons of energy consumption. Finally this paper emphasizes that the change of ideas on the reform of policies and mechanism should be highlighted at this historical period of transition toward a low carbon era.