| 突变理论在长江流域洪灾综合风险社会评价中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李继清,张玉山,纪昌明,王丽萍. 突变理论在长江流域洪灾综合风险社会评价中的应用[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2007, 40(4): 26-30 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李继清 张玉山 纪昌明 王丽萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学水利水电工程系,北京,102206
2. 国务院南水北调工程建设委员会办公室,北京,100053 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;武汉大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 从社会学的角度,分析了洪灾综合风险社会评估的基本组成.结合洪灾风险的自然属性和社会属性在短时间内发生转变的特性,应用突变评价理论,给出了考虑风险可接受水平的洪灾综合风险社会评估的突变评价方法,建立了长江流域的评价指标体系,并用实例验证了该模型方法的合理性与可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | 洪灾 综合风险 社会评价 突变理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-8844（2007）04-0026-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-14 |
Application of catastrophe theory to social assessment of integrated flood disaster risks in Yangtze River |
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| LI Jiqing,ZHANG Yushan,JI Changming,WANG Liping. Application of catastrophe theory to social assessment of integrated flood disaster risks in Yangtze River[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2007, 40(4): 26-30 |
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| Authors: | LI Jiqing ZHANG Yushan JI Changming WANG Liping |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 2. Office for South-to North Water Transfer Commission of State Council, Beijing 100053, China |
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| Abstract: | As viewed from society, combining with the transient attribute of flood disaster risk both in nature and society and considering the level of acceptable risk (or risk threshold), this paper analyses the basic composition of social assessment of integrated flood risks, which consists of risk of casualties of people, economic risk, environmental risk, and potential risks, from the perspective of sociology, and presents an assessing method of integrated flood risks based on catastrophe theory. Based on expatiating on primary models of catastrophe theory,the assessment index system for the Yangtze River is established. A case study is conducted to prove its rationality and practicality. |
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| Keywords: | flood disaster integrated risk social assessment catastrophe theory |
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