| 基于加权LS-SVM的飞行事故率预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡新江,徐浩军,刘镭.基于加权LS-SVM的飞行事故率预测模型[J].微计算机信息,2011(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡新江 徐浩军 刘镭 |
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| 作者单位： | 空军工程大学工程学院;中国人民解放军空军装备部; |
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| 基金项目： | 基金申请人:徐浩军;项目名称:复杂系统建模与小概率事件评估在民航飞行安全保障中的应用;基金颁发部门:国家自然科学基金委(60572172);基金申请人:徐浩军;项目名称:人机闭环系统非线性失稳与非线性PIO机理研究;基金颁发部门:国家自然科学基金委(61074007) |
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| 摘 要： | 飞行事故率是表征飞行安全水平的重要指标,其预测是典型的小样本问题。针对飞行事故率预测建模难的问题,采用加权LS-SVM方法,建立了飞行事故率的时间序列预测模型。仿真实验表明,加权LS-SVM具有很高的建模精度和较强的泛化能力,从而验证了该方法的有效性和先进性。
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| 关 键 词： | 可加权最小二乘支持向量机 飞行事故 事故率 预测建模 |
Forecast Model of Flight Accident Rate Based on Weighted LS-SVM |
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| HU Xin-jiang XU Hao-jun LIU Lei.Forecast Model of Flight Accident Rate Based on Weighted LS-SVM[J].Control & Automation,2011(7). |
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| Authors: | HU Xin-jiang XU Hao-jun LIU Lei |
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| Affiliation: | HU Xin-jiang XU Hao-jun LIU Lei(The Engineering Institute,Air Force Engineering University,Xi'an 710038,China) (Air Force Department of Equipment of PLA,Beijing 100055,China) |
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| Abstract: | Flight accident rate is an important index which reflects the aviation safety degree. The prediction of flight accident rate is typically a small sample problem. Aiming at the problem of hard forecast modeling for flight accident rates, the forecast model of flight accident rates is established by using of Weighted LS-SVM method. The simulation results show that Weighted LS-SVM has high modeling precision and strong generalization. Therefore the method mentioned above is valid and advanced. |
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| Keywords: | Weighted least squares support vector machines (Weighted LS-SVM) flight accident accident rate forecast modeling |
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