基于文献调研的我国建筑结构地震倒塌风险概率评估

基于文献调研，搜集和整理了我国近年来关于建筑结构地震倒塌易损性方面的研究成果，建立了我国建筑结构地震倒塌易损性数据库。基于经典的Cornell地震风险概率计算公式，分别以谱加速度和峰值加速度为地震动强度参数，计算了我国建筑结构的地震倒塌风险概率。通过与美国抗震设计规范FEMA P750和欧洲学者建议的关于建筑结构地震倒塌风险的相关要求进行对比，对我国建筑结构的地震倒塌风险水平进行了评估。分析结果表明: 由于我国现行抗震设计规范GB 50011—2010中并未对结构地震倒塌风险做一致性要求，因此，我国建筑结构的地震倒塌风险概率结果分布较广；随着建筑结构抗震设防等级的提高，其地震倒塌风险概率也随之增加；相比于美国规范和欧洲学者研究成果，我国现行抗震设计规范尚不能对结构的地震倒塌风险进行有效控制。

Probabilistic assessment of seismic collapse risk for building structures in China based on literature investigation

Seismic collapse fragility results of structures were collected and analyzed based on the investigation of the published Chinese literatures in the recent years. A seismic collapse fragility database of the structures designed according to the Chinese codes was developed. Based on the classic formula proposed by Cornell, the seismic collapse risk probability of Chinese structures was calculated using both spectral acceleration and peak ground acceleration as the earthquake intensity measures. Then the calculated seismic collapse risk probability of Chinese structures was evaluated by comparing with the seismic collapse risk requirement in the US code FEMA P750 and European researchers’ suggestions. The results show that the calculated seismic collapse risk probability of Chinese structures is scattered to a great extent since the current Chinese seismic design code GB 50011—2010 does not provide a unified requirement of seismic collapse risk. With the increase of seismic fortification of structures, the collapse risk is increased accordingly. Being different from the US code and European researches, the current Chinese seismic design codes are not able to effectively control the seismic collapse risk of structures.