我国居民养老地产需求及其影响因素研究——基于武汉市数据的实证

从人口、购买能力、购买意愿三个方面深入探析养老地产的发展潜力,并利用武汉市的广泛调查数据建立Probit回归模型分析居民购买养老地产的影响因素。结果显示,我国养老产业市场需求巨大、发展空间广阔;年龄、户籍、职业、性别和自有住房数目对养老地产购买意愿具有显著正效应,居住状况则具有显著负效应;收入不稳定人员及自有住房数目较多的老年人对养老地产有着较强的购买意愿。由此建议:政府部门发挥引导作用促进潜在需求显现,同时开发商立足目标客户需求,优化规划设计,以实现养老地产的快速、健康发展。

Study on the Demand and Influencing Factors of Pension Real Estate in China:An Empirical Study based on the Data of Wuhan City

This paper analyzes the development potential of pension real estate from three aspects:population,purchase ability and purchase intention.Based on the extensive survey data in Wuhan,builds the Probit regression model to analyze the influencing factors of residents’purchase of pension real estate.The results show that China’s pension real estate has a huge market demand and broad space for development.Age,household registration,occupation,gender and number of owner-occupied houses have a significant positive effect on the purchase intention of pension real estate,while residence status has significant negative effects.Besides,people with unstable income,and elder people with a large number of self-owned houses have a strong purchase intention for pension real estate.Therefore,it is suggested that government departments play a guiding role to promote the emergence of potential demand.At the same time,developers should optimize planning and designing based on the needs of target customers to achieve rapid and healthy development of pension real estate.