居民夏季用电需求灰色关联预测模型的研究

在定性分析北京地区GDP，居民降温设备拥有量，电费支出占可支配收入比例等因素时该地区居民夏季用电需求的基础上，应用灰色关联理论，找出了影响居民夏季用电需求增加的主要因素，建立了关于居民夏季用电需求量与这些影响因素变量的GM(1，n)模型，描述了关联因素时居民夏季用电需求的影响，为电力部门做好负荷预测，制定夏季负荷的调整方案及其电网的电力运行计划等提供了参考依据。

Research of Grey Correlation Model for Forecasting Residential Power Demand in Summer

The major factors which cause residential consu mption demand to increase in summer are presented based on qualitative analysis on GDP in Beijing,number of cooling equipment possessed by residents and electri city expenses in percentage of allocable income,a GM model is set up between res idential consumption in summer and variable factors by using grey correlation th eory.The study provides reference basis for electric power department to make lo ad prediction and work out load adjustment scheme as well as network planning.