| 改进的非等间距GM(1,1)模型在大坝沉降分析中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴邦彬,陈〓兰,葛〓萃.改进的非等间距GM(1,1)模型在大坝沉降分析中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(6):95-97. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴邦彬 陈〓兰 葛〓萃 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098;河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098
2. 江西省吉安市水文局,江西吉安,343000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51179066，51079086）；新世纪优秀人才支持计划基金资助项目（NCET100359）；国家重点实验室专项经费基金资助项目（2009586912，2009586012）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目（2010B01414）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程基金资助项目（水利工程）（YS11001）；水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目（201101013） |
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| 摘 要： | 由于影响大坝监测数据因素多,且数据存在非等间距离散的情况,利用传统非等间距GM(1,1)模型的建模原理,分析了数据拟合与预测精度低的原因,提出了优化背景值的改进非等间距GM(1,1)模型,根据两种模型对施工期堆石坝心墙的沉降观测数据进行拟合和预测。实例表明,改进模型精度较高,更接近观测值,可应用于工程实际中。
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| 关 键 词： | 大坝 沉降 分析 预测 非等间距GM(1 1)模型 |
Application of Improved Non equidistance GM(1,1) Model in Dam Settlement Analysis |
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| WU Bangbin,CHEN Lan and GE Cui.Application of Improved Non equidistance GM(1,1) Model in Dam Settlement Analysis[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2012,30(6):95-97. |
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| Authors: | WU Bangbin CHEN Lan and GE Cui |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;2.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;3.Ji’an City Water Conservancy Bureau of Jiangxi Province,Ji’an 343000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Because many factors influence the dam monitoring data and the data are non-equidistant discrete,the reasons of low precision on data fitting and prediction are analyzed with traditional GM(1,1)model.And the improved non-equidistance GM(1,1)model is proposed by optimizing background values.According to two models,the settlement observation data of rock-fill dam core wall in construction period is fitted and forecasted.Examples show that the improved model has high precision and it approaches the measured value,which can be applied to the actual project. |
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| Keywords: | dam settlement analysis prediction non-equidistance GM(1 1) model |
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