| 基于学习曲线的中国光伏发电成本发展趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 隋礼辉.基于学习曲线的中国光伏发电成本发展趋势分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(6):209-211,215. |
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| 作者姓名： | 隋礼辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古交通职业技术学院,内蒙古赤峰,024005 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了我国光伏发电的发展情况,以学习曲线模型为原理,分别采用恒定学习率与分阶段学习率分析了未来我国10年光伏发电单位成本发展趋势,并估算了光伏发电实现商业化运作所需的学习成本,预测在2020年左右我国光伏发电成本有望与传统化石能源相持平,进而步入大规模商业化运作阶段。
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| 关 键 词： | 光伏发电 学习曲线 发电成本 低碳能源 |
Analysis of Cost Development Trend of Photovoltaic Power Generation in China Based on Learning Curve |
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| SUI Lihui.Analysis of Cost Development Trend of Photovoltaic Power Generation in China Based on Learning Curve[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2012,30(6):209-211,215. |
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| Authors: | SUI Lihui |
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| Affiliation: | Transportation Vocation Technical College of Inner Mongdia, Chifeng 024005, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents the development trend of photovoltaic power generation in China. Based on the learning curve model, constant learning rates and stage learning rates are adopted to analyze the development trend of photovoltaic power generation unit cost. And the learning cost of PV power generation achieved commercial operation is estimated. Then it predicts that the cost of PV power generation in 2020 is expected to match the traditional fossil fuels and will be realized the large scale commercial operation stage. |
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| Keywords: | photovoltaic power generation learning curve generation cost low carbon energy |
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