Renal and cardiovascular predictors of 9-year total and sudden cardiac mortality in non-insulin-dependent diabetic subjects

BACKGROUND: The objective was to evaluate the impact of urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER), glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and subclinical autonomic neuropathy (SANP) on 9-year total (TM) and sudden cardiac mortality (SCM) in recently diagnosed (< 1 year; RD; n = 150) and known (mean duration 11 years; KD; n = 146) NIDDM subjects. METHODS: The study was prospective and controlled (n = 150). Mortality predictors were analysed by logistic regression analysis. The dependent variables were TM and SCM, the predictors were UAER, GFR, SANP, age, gender, BMI, mean arterial pressure (MAP), fasting serum cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, insulin, haemoglobin A1c, diabetes duration, QTc-interval (ECG), coronary heart disease (CHD), peripheral vascular disease (PVD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), congestive heart failure (CHF), antihypertensive therapy, and smoking habits. RESULTS: CHD predicted TM and SCM in both RD (P = 0.041 and 0.029) and KD (P = 0.034 and 0.006). PVD predicted TM and SCM in KD only (P = 0.001 and 0.003). CVD predicted TM and SCM in RD only (P = 0.001 and 0.017). In RD male gender (P = 0.049), fasting serum cholesterol (P = 0.007) and CHF (P = 0.001) predicted TM and in kDa haemoglobin A1c (P = 0.004), age (P = 0.001) and MAP (P = 0.014) predicted TM. Serum triglycerides predicted SCM in both RD and kDa (P = 0.001 and 0.003). SANP predicted TM (P = 0.009) and SCM (P = 0.044) in KD only. GFR (inverse value) predicted TM and SCM (P = 0.04 and 0.027) in kDa only. The UAER did not predict mortality in the diabetic subjects. CONCLUSION: SANP and a slightly reduced GFR still in the normal range predicted mortality in KD. Microalbuminuria (30 < UAER < 300 mg/24 h) did not independently predict 9-year mortality in the NIDDM subjects studied.