应用改进灰色模型预测油田产量

准确的油田产量预测对油田开发调整部署和提高措施作业的效益有重要作用,本文应用灰色预测理论,使用精确差分格式和改进拟合参数的方法,建立了油田产量预测模型。由于拟合参数与误差之间存在着明显的非线性关系,因此选用新型的自适应遗传算法求取拟合参数的最优估计值。实例计算表明,自适应遗传算法计算速度快、精度高;而使用改进的灰色模型对油田产量的预测,其准确程度明显提高。

Application of Modified Gray Model in Oilfield Production Forecast

The accurate production forecast of oilfield plays an important role in making the modification of development plan and improving the efficiency of operation performance. The Gray predicting theory,accurate difference scheme and modified simulating parameter are applied to develop a model of oilfield production forecast. Because of nonlinear correlation between the simulating parameter and the error of prediction,the optimal value of the parameter is derived with new self,adaptive genetic algorithm. The case estimation shows that this algorithm is faster and more accurate features,and using modified Gray model may significantly improve the accuracy for production forecast.