Brände und Explosionen im Rahmen der Risikoermittlung

The procedure of assessing risks is treated by analyzing an event sequence following the puff release of gaseous propylene. The models for fireball, flash fire and explosion required for this purpose are presented. Their uncertainties and sensitivities are discussed and illustrated by numerical examples. Modeling and data uncertainties in assessing the probabilities of event sequences are characterized; their mathematical treatment is shown. Deterministic as well as probabilistic calculations are performed and their results are compared.