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Robustness of the autoregressive spectral estimate for linear processes with infinite variance
Authors:R J Bhansali
Affiliation:University of Liverpool
Abstract:Consider a discrete-time linear process { x t }, a one-sided moving average of independent identically distributed random variables {ε t }, with the common distribution in the domain of attraction of a symmetric stable law of index δ∈ (0, 2) and the moving-average coefficients b ( j ) such that ε t is invertible in terms of the present and possibly infinite past values of { x t }. By treating { x t } as if it is second-order stationary, a normalized spectral density function f (μ) is defined in terms of the b ( j ) and, having observed x 1, ..., x T , an autoregression of order k is fitted by the well-known Yule–Walker and least squares methods and the normalized autoregressive spectral estimators are constructed. On letting k ←∞ as T ←∞, but sufficiently slowly, these estimators are shown to be uniformly consistent for f (μ), the convergence rate being T ?1/φ, φ > δ. The finite sample behaviour is investigated by a simulation study which also examines possible effects of considering 'non-invertible' models.
Keywords:Stable law  innovations outliers  time series
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