基于PLUS-InVEST模型的碳储量时空演变与预测模拟

城市化的快速推进导致生态空间萎缩、景观破碎化等问题，极大降低了城市生态系统的碳存储能力。在此背景下，探究城市碳储量的时空演变特征、未来变化趋势及与景观格局的空间关联性意义重大。以深圳市为研究对象，基于2000—2020年土地利用数据，耦合PLUS-InVEST模型对土地利用和碳储量的时空演变进行分析。设定多种情景发展模式，对不同模式下土地利用和碳储量的变化进行预测模拟。最后，结合双变量空间自相关分析碳储量与景观格局的关联性及空间集聚特征。结果表明：1)2000—2020年深圳市碳储量呈下降趋势，耕地、林地等生态用地向建设用地的转换是区域碳储量下降的根源；2)未来3种情景下的碳储量和生态用地面积均明显下降，其中生态优先情景下碳储量下降最少；3)在高度城市化区域，碳储量与生态面积、景观破碎度均呈正相关关系，三者综合指数的空间布局特征与人类活动的开发程度息息相关。研究结果为土地紧缺的城市实现低碳高质量发展提供依据和参考。

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Prediction Simulationof Carbon Storage Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

The rapid advance of urbanization leads to ecologicalspace shrinking, landscape fragmentation and other problems,which greatly reduces the carbon sink capacity of urban ecosystems.In this context, it is of great significance to explore the temporal andspatial evolution characteristics, future trends and spatial correlationof urban carbon storage with landscape patterns. Based on the landuse data from 2000 to 2020 in Shenzhen City, the spatial-temporalevolution of land use and carbon storage was analyzed by coupledPLUS-InVEST model. The changes of land use and carbon storagewere predicted and simulated under different scenarios. Finally, thebivariate spatial autocorrelation was combined to analyze the correlationand the spatial agglomeration characteristics between carbon storageand landscape pattern. The results showed that: 1) Carbon storage inShenzhen showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020, and theconversion of ecological land such as cultivated land and forestland to construction land was the root cause of the decline of carbonstorage in Shenzhen. 2) Carbon storage and ecological land areawill decrease significantly under the three scenarios in the future,and carbon storage will decrease least under the ecological priorityscenario. 3) In highly urbanized areas, carbon storage is positivelycorrelated with ecological area and landscape fragmentation, andthe spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage, ecologicalspace area, and landscape fragmentation index are closely related tothe degree of exploitation of human activities. The research resultscan provide basis and reference for realizing low-carbon and highqualitydevelopment in land shortage cities.