基于可靠性分析的公用工程操作优化

针对公用工程系统，基于可靠性分析提出新型的操作优化方法。该方法结合关键设备故障分析，采用系统的数学手段计算公用工程系统由于设备故障所产生的所有可能的操作状态及其概率。每一个状态进行单独的操作优化，其经济评价与该状态的概率相加权，以此获得系统整体经济评估。此方法中，设备的操作策略得到优化，如冷备用、热备用、负荷共享等。操作成本与设备故障造成的生产损失成本得以权衡。与传统的优化方法相比，该方法可获得更低的系统总成本。

Operation optimization of utility systems based on reliability analysis

A novel operation optimization framework was proposed for utility systems based on reliability analysis. Combining with the equipment failure analysis，the systematic math methodology can obtain all possible system states caused by unit failures and their probabilities. Each individual system state performs a traditional operation optimization. The economic performance was weighted against its probability，and the overall system economic performance was generated. In the novel methodology，the operating strategy was optimized，for example，cold standby，hot standby and load-sharing. Operating cost was balanced with the lost production penalty due to equipment failures. Compared to the traditional method，the novel framework can obtain a lower total cost.