基于模糊模式识别理论的中国房地产市场发展阶段判别研究

房地产市场的波动性要求研究者合理分析及预测房地产市场所处的阶段 ,以便引导并帮助市场参与者做出合理的判断和决策。模糊模式识别是模糊数学应用的领域之一 ,以现实中模糊现象的普遍存在为依据 ,将客观标准的模糊性与人类认知行为的模糊性结合起来 ,更加真实地反映研究对象的状态 ;同时从整个系统出发 ,科学地确定各个对象对应指标的权重 ,最终使研究结果能够帮助决策者做出理性选择。本文以该理论为基础 ,利用 2 0 0 2年的相关统计数据 ,分析了全国及北京房地产市场的发展状况。结果表明 :我国房地产市场目前处于积极发展时期 ,但有必要采取相应措施来保持市场的理性和稳定。

A STUDY OF DETERMINATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE OF CHINA REAL EATATE MARKET BASED ON THE FUZZY RECOGNITION THEORY

With the development of real estate industry, it becomes more and more urgent to understand the market development stage in order to help the participants make right decisions. Differentiated from the other methodologies used to analyze the market development, the Fuzzy Identification Theory (FIT), with a view to the real world and concerning the uncertainty of both criteria and human being's cognizance, can be more suitable to evaluate the weight of each indicator for comprehending the real estate market. Based on this theory and related statistics in 2002, this paper estimates the development stage of real estate markets in China as a whole and the City of Beijing. The result indicates that although the real estate market in China has been developed steadily in the sample period, it is necessary to take relevant measures to ensure the market advance healthily.