基于SD模型的水资源承载力模拟研究

针对铁岭市农业需水量大、非点源污染严重的特点,运用系统动力学原理,在全面分析铁岭市水资源承载力系统的基础上,建立了维护水环境生态健康的水资源承载力系统动力学模型,模拟了在现状发展型、经济发展型、治污节水型、可持续发展型4种方案下铁岭市2008-2020年水资源承载力的动态变化。结果表明,协调发展型方案是提高铁岭市水资源承载力,保证社会、经济与环境协调发展的最可行方案。

Simulation of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Tieling City Based on System Dynamics Model

Taking the complicated system characteristics of large agricultural water demand and serious non-point pollution in Tieling city into consideration , adopting the system dynamics method, the water resources carrying capacity system model for protecting water ecological environment health was established through comprehensive analysis of the system of water resources carrying capacity in Tieling city. Dynamic changes of the carrying capacity of water resources in Tieling city from 2008 to 2020 were simulated under 4 kinds of schemes including current development type, economic development type, anti-pollution and water-saving type and sustainable development type. The results show that the sustainable development type is the most feasible one to raise the carrying capacity of water resources and to ensure harmonious development of society, economy and environment in Tieling city.