滑坡发生地周围类似滑坡再发分析及灾害评价

在具有相同和类似工程地质条件的山丘地区，其边坡破坏形式及滑坡灾害往往表现为相同和相近的特征，因此在分析大范围山丘区域内的滑坡灾害时，对既往滑坡破坏及灾害的研究可用于邻近区域滑坡灾害再发可能性分析。在调查和分析了发生于日本熊本地区的一边坡破坏及其灾害的机理后，采用边坡三维稳定性分析推求了适应邻近区域边坡稳定性分析的物理力学参数；同时将邻近的研究区域划分为边坡单元，对各边坡单元采用Monte Carlo模拟方法并基于边坡稳定性分析的极限平衡模型搜索了最不利的三维滑体；对照既往滑坡破坏及灾害的影响范围，对整个区域内的可能不稳定滑体的可能影响溪流及影响范围进行了分析，同时在与该地区的道路建筑物等地理信息系统数据集进行叠加后得出了今后可能受灾的民宅及路段。

LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT AROUND A PAST LANDSLIDE SITE

The slope failure and landslide hazard will possess the same properties within a range with the same engineering geological conditions. For landslide hazard assessment of a mountainous area,the study of past landslide is very important for evaluating landslide hazard around the past landslide site. Based on the study of mechanism of a past landslide taken place in Kumamoto of Japan,this study firstly proposes the mechanical parameters for landslide hazard evaluating using a 3D slope stability method. For each slope unit in the study area, the critical slip surface,which gives a minimum safety factor of a slope,can be obtained. The affected streams and range of possible landslide masses are analyzed based on the damaged range of the past landslide. Over layered with the layers of infrastructure in geographical information system(GIS),this hazard map indicates which buildings and road sections are still in the dangerous area.