基于AHP和TOPSIS法的空间负荷预测

配电网空间负荷预测的核心问题是负荷密度指标的选取，目前选取负荷密度指标的方法一般难以满足实际工程中对精度的要求．引入AHP和TOPSIS法求取负荷密度指标，运用AHP法确定评价指标的权重，运用TOP-SIS法进行评价指标的规范化和排序计算，量化影响负荷密度指标的因素，选择负荷密度指标，并在此基础上采用相似度方法进行负荷密度的修正．将该种算法和模型应用于大量实际的工程项目，证明了该模型和算法能够快速计算出负荷密度指标，并且能够保持一定的精度，适用于工程实践中的空间负荷预测．

AHP and TOPSIS method based spatial electric load forecasting

The core question of spatial load forecasting is the load density selection. The existing methods to obtain load density can hardly satisfy the accuracy requirements in actual projects. The theory of AHP and TOPSIS is introduced to calculate load density, which not only adopts the theory of AHP to determine the weigh of evaluation indicators, but also makes use of the TOPSIS to standardize and caculate the sorting for evaluation indicators. The influence factors of load density is quantitied to choose the appropriate load density by the theory of AHP and TOPSIS, and based on this, the method of similar degree is used to modify the load density. The model and the method proposed in this paper were used in a large number of actual projects. Results showed the model and the method can calculate the load density quickly and maintain a certain precision. They are suitable to the spatial load forecasting in actual projects.