气候变化及其对湖北长江水文水资源的影响

采用降水量累积频率,得出了长江干流湖北段洪涝灾情出现概率大于旱情,用r=kRαTβ模型来探讨降水和气温变化对径流量的影响,该流域的年径流量在总体上随降水量的增加而上升,随气温的下降而增加.利用相关统计方法,得出了不同季节上游各流域降水对宜昌水文站流量影响的程度各异.应用小波分析原理,显示出历史流量和降水变化的周期、目前所处的状况和今后的演变趋势.三峡大坝建成后,在很大程度上改变自然状态下长江上游来水的分配,此分析结果具有重要参考价值.

Study on impact of climatic change on hydrology and water resources of Yangtze River reaches in Hubei Province

The frequency of floods emergence is more than droughts in Hubei Province according to the frequency of accumulative precipitation from small to big.By using the model,r=kR~αT~β,the impact of precipitation and temperature change on discharge of the Yangtze River reaches in Hubei Province is probed.The annual discharge is increased as precipitation increases and temperature decreases.By using a method of correlation,it is different that the discharge of Yichang Hydrological Station is effected by the precipitation of upper reaches in different seasons.By using a wavelet analysis of the precipitation change of the upper reaches and the discharge in Yichang Hydrological Station,it is displayed that these change some regulation on history and for future.The analysis is important after the Three Gorges Dam completed,because of the discharge from upper reaches has changed.