| 渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱杰,车长波,柳广弟,刘成林.渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测[J].油气地质与采收率,2006,13(6):16-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱杰 车长波 柳广弟 刘成林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油大学(北京)资源与信息学院,北京102249
2. 国土资源部,油气资源战略研究中心,北京,100866 |
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| 摘 要： | 渤海湾盆地的石油地质储量发现过程具有明显的渐进性、阶段性和长期性，石油产量的增长也具有一定的起伏性，用一个周期的单旋回哈伯特模型难以预测其发展趋势。通过分析渤海湾盆地的勘探开发历程，结合新一轮常规油气资源评价的结果，分别采用4个和3个哈伯特旋回拟合石油地质储量发现和产量增长曲线。预测结果显示，2005-2015年渤海湾盆地处于石油地质储量发现高峰期，2015年左右其石油产量达到高峰，之后处于下降趋势。实践证明，利用多旋回哈伯特模型对具有“多峰”特征的石油地质储量和产量的未来趋势进行预测是一种有效的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 多旋回 哈伯特模型 储量 产量 渤海湾盆地 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-9603(2006)06-0016-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-29 |
Forecasting the oil reserves and increment trend of production rate in Bohai Bay Basin |
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| Zhu Jie,Che Changbo,Liu Guangdi et al. Zhu Jie,Faculty of Resources and Information,China University of Petroleum.Forecasting the oil reserves and increment trend of production rate in Bohai Bay Basin[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2006,13(6):16-18. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Jie Che Changbo Liu Guangdi Zhu Jie Faculty of Resources and Information China University of Petroleum |
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| Abstract: | Discovery of the oil reserves in Bohai Bay Basin is a gradual, step by step and long term process. Single Hubbert cycle is hard to forecast the trend of production rate for certain fluctuation of the incremental production rate. With the analysis of the exploration and exploitation history, as well as the results of latest resource assessment in Bohai Bay Basin, four and three Hubbert cycles are used separately to match the future oil reserves and incremental production curves. The forecasted results are that the oil reserves will be discovered more in the Bohai Bay Basin between 2005 and 2015,and the production is to arrive at its peak in 2015. The multi-cyclic Hubbert model works well for the forecasting the multi-peak reserves and production rate. |
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| Keywords: | multi-cyclic Hubbert model reserves production rate Bohaiwan Bay Basin |
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