上海市生活垃圾处理问题的系统动力学分析

与日俱增的人口产生了越来越多的生活垃圾.面对垃圾围城的严峻形势,城市生活垃圾处理变得越来越迫切.为了预测上海市未来的垃圾产生量,探讨合适的处置方法和调控措施,利用系统动力学的方法建立了上海市城市生活垃圾产生和处理系统的动力学模型.通过查阅大量文献并收集数据,预测未来生活垃圾的产生总量和处理总量,对各种处理方式的收益进行了对比,并利用系统动力学模型模拟软件VENSIM进行了模拟.结果表明:在调控措施下,未来上海市垃圾产生量能得到控制和更加环保的处理;同时,需要控制人口,提高环保投资占GDP比重,实行垃圾收费制度.

System dynamics analysis on the municipal solid waste disposal problems in Shanghai

Due to the population growing,more and more municipal solid wastes(MSW) are generated.The serious situation of MSW surrounding city has made its disposal become an urgent problem.The purpose of this paper was to forecast the MSW production and to find its appropriate disposal method and regulation measures.Dynamics model of the MSW generation and disposal system in Shanghai was constructed with system dynamics method.The data in the model was collected from the published literatures,and was used to predict the total volume of produced MSW,total volume of treated MSW.The comparison of benefits was made among a variety of waste treatment methods.The simulation was conducted using VENSIM software.It was found that,with the regulation measure,the MSW output could be controlled and its disposal could be more environment-friendly in the future in Shanghai by controlling the population,increasing the share of environmental protection investment in GDP,and implementing waste charging institution.