全国近十年晾烟生产及市场变化分析

利用2010-2019年近十年全国晾烟种植面积、收购量以及国内外市场需求调研的数据资料，对全国晾烟生产和供求变化趋势进行综合分析。结果表明，全国晾烟种植面积和收购量总体呈"平稳-速降-平缓波动"趋势。2012年以后，白肋烟和马里兰烟种植面积和收购量均呈下降趋势，而雪茄烟叶年份间虽有较大起伏，但总体呈波动上升趋势。2019年白肋烟种植面积和收购量只有2012年的14%，马里兰烟只有5%左右；而雪茄烟叶种植面积由2011年的40.0 hm²增加到2019年的357.8 hm²。从种植面积和收购量占比来看，十年来白肋烟占比在80%~90%之间波动，马里兰烟占比由大于10%下降到3%左右，雪茄烟叶占比由1%增加到10%左右。白肋烟和马里兰烟在国内市场销量逐年下降，但雪茄烟叶在上升。2016年之后，国外市场晾烟需求有所回升。白肋烟和马里兰烟种植规模萎缩与国内混合型卷烟产量严重下滑有直接关系。作为混合型卷烟和雪茄的重要原料，在雪茄发展速度加快形势下，晾烟市场未来仍有潜力，建议各地应抓住时机，科学合理组织晾烟生产。

Changing Trends of Production and Market of Air-cured Tobaccos of China in Last 10 Years

The changing trends of production and market of air-cured tobacco leaves were analyzed synthetically by using survey data of planting areas, purchase quantity, market demand of tobaccos in China from 2010 to 2019. The results showed that there was a steady-downhill-gentle-fluctuation tread in total planting area and purchasing volume of nationwide air-cured tobaccos. After 2012, there was a going-down trend in burley and Maryland tobaccos but an unstable up rate for cigar tobaccos. The planting area and purchasing volume of burley tobaccos in 2019 were 14% of that in 2012, being about 5% for Maryland tobaccos. The planting area of cigar tobaccos in 2019 increased up to 357.8 ha from 40.0 ha in 2011. The proportion of burley tobaccos in planting area and purchasing volume of nationwide air-cured tobaccos fluctuated between 80%-90%, while that of Maryland tobaccos dropped down to 3% from More than 10%, along with increasing to more than 10% from 1% for cigar tobaccos. The sales of burley and Maryland tobaccos were dropped yearly in domestic markets along with going up for cigar tobaccos. The demand for air-cured tobacco in foreign market has rebounded after 2016. The shrinking scale of production of burley and Maryland tobaccos was certainly related to the declination of blend cigarette yield at home. There is a great potential in the future market of air-cured tobaccos as important raw materials of blend cigarette and cigar. It was suggested that corresponding producing regions should seize the opportunity to reasonably organize air-cured tobacco production.