近20年全国烤烟产区种植规模消长变化分析

利用2001至2020年期间全国烤烟生产数据，对全国不同烤烟产区种植规模消长及其地位变化进行了分析，并对产区分类方式和种植规模转移等相关问题进行了比较论证。结果表明，近20年，全国有22个省份每年都种植烤烟，生产规模经历了“三起三落”的较大波动，但总体呈“上升－下降”趋势。全国种植面积从2001年的94.3万hm²开始，逐年振荡上升，至2013年达到141.0万hm²的最高峰，然后连年下滑，到2020年降到了88.7万hm²。按照各省烤烟种植规模大小及其占比的上升或下降变化趋势相似性，将全国各烤烟产区分为4类。与2001年相比，2020年云南、四川和湖南种植面积占比分别增加了12.1、5.4和2.5百分点，而贵州、河南、山东、陕西、黑龙江、重庆、吉林和广东种植面积占比分别减少了5.8、4.9、2.2、1.7、1.5、1.4、0.7和0.7百分点，全国烤烟种植规模消长变化及转移主要在这11个省份之间发生，其他省份的变化及其影响甚小。本文提出的依据面积及其占比变化趋势相似性进行产区分类方法及对不同产区种植规模消长变化分析，可为了解和研究我国烤烟种植规模布局调整和未来发展规划决策提供参考。

Changes in Planting Scale of Flue-cured Tobacco Production Regions in China in Recent 20 Years

Based on the data of flue-cured tobacco production in China from 2001 to 2020, the growth and decline of planting scale and the change of planting status in different tobacco producing regions were analyzed synthetically, and the classification of tobacco regions and the shift of planting scale were compared and demonstrated. The results showed that there were 22 provinces planting flue-cured tobaccos in China in the last 20 years and the great fluctuations of "three ups and three downs" in change of the total production scale with the overall trend of "up and down". The national planting area was 0.943 million hectares in 2001, reached the peak of 1.41 million hectares in 2013 with fluctuation rising year by year, and then declined year after year, to 0.887 million hectares in 2020. The 22 production regions were divided into four types according to the similarity of the increasing or decreasing trend of area percentage and planting scale of each province. Compared with 2001, the proportion of planting areas in Yunnan, Sichuan and Hunan increased by 12.2, 5.4 and 2.5 percentage points respectively in 2020, while that in Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Jilin and Guangdong decreased by 5.8, 4.9, 2.2, 1.7, 1.5, 1.4, 0.7 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. The growth and decline of the national tobacco planting scale and the shift of the planting scale mainly occurred among those 11 provinces, whereas the change and influence of other provinces were negligible. The method of producing region classification based on the similarity of change trend and the analysis of the growth and decline of planting scale on different producing regions were proposed in this paper for reference of understanding and studying the overall arrangement and adjustment of national flue-cured tobacco planting scale and the policy decision of future development plan.