实物期权法在低渗透油田开发经济评价中的应用

低渗透油田开发项目不确定性因素多，具有典型的实物期权特性，投资具有不可逆性和可推迟性，决策者在选择开发时机时具有一定的灵活性。基于Black-Scholes模型建立了适合于低渗透油田开发项目特性的实物期权定价模型，并且与传统的净现值法进行对比。2种方法得到了不同的结论，原因在于净现值法低估了项目的价值。

Application of Real Options to Economic Evaluation of Low Permeability Oilfield Development Project

There are a lot of uncertain factors in the low permeability oilfield development project. Its investment is of irreversibility and delayability. The decision?maker has some flexibility in choosing development time. These features allow the project to be of typical real options property. Based on Black?Scholes model, this article establishes the real options method suitable for such a project, conducts case study and makes a comparison with net present value (NPV) method. However, the opposite results are obtained by these two methods. It is concluded that the reason is that using NPV method tends to underestimating the value of the project