封面+目录

随着我国电力体制市场化改革的深入,市场化的运营为电力市场参与者带来了风险。而在碳达峰、碳中和战略背景下,电力市场参与者在面对传统风险外,还需要面对低碳政策与碳市场带来的碳风险。作为重要的风险管理工具,电力期货在各大成熟的电力市场中有着广泛的应用,同时也引起了我国电力市场参与者的广泛关注。为定量研究引入电力期货对现货市场带来的可能影响,文章提出了一个双层电力市场仿真模型。该模型第一层对电力期货的市场交易行为进行了建模,第二层对电力期货背景下的发电企业最优报价策略进行了建模。基于所提模型,文章在一个六机组的电力市场环境下,针对两种合约签订方法进行了数值仿真实验。仿真结果显示,在两种合约签订方法下,电力期货的引入都有助于现货市场平衡每年高峰用电月份过高的现货电价与每年低峰用电月份过低的现货电价,从而帮助电力市场参与者进行风险管控。

Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Electricity Futures on Electricity Spot Market under the Background of Carbon Neutrality

With the further development of China’s electricity market’s reform, the marketization brings price risk to the market participants. Moreover, under China’s Carbon Neutrality strategy, the electricity market participants will face not only the traditional risk, but also the carbon risk. As an important tool for risk management, electricity futures are widely used in many mature electricity markets and have attracted attention from the market participants in China. To quantitatively analyze the impact of introducing electricity futures on the spot market, this paper proposes a bi-level electricity simulation model. The first level models the transaction behavior of electricity futures, and the second level models the optimal bidding strategy of generation companies under the market with power futures. Numerical experiments simulate a six-unit power market environment with two different contract signing methods. The simulation results show that the introduction of electricity futures can help the spot market to balance the price in both peak and valley period, thus helping the electricity market in both scenarios.