指数平滑法预测滑坡变形的适用性探讨

为弄清滑坡变形预测中指数平滑法的适用情形,探讨了该法对三峡库区两种典型滑坡位移曲线--台阶型位移变形曲线和波动型位移变形曲线趋势预测的适用性。研究结果表明,对于台阶型位移变形曲线，在变形增量由大变小的转折点处，预测值曲线形成尖峰形状，使得预测值估计偏大，而其它阶段误差值相对较小；对于波动型位移变形曲线，指数平滑法具有相当的滞后性，滞后时间与选取的预测时间间隔大致一致，表现出较差的适应性。 

Discussion of applicability of exponential smoothing method in landslide deformation prediction

To explore the applicability of exponential smoothing method in landslide deformation prediction, two typical landslide deformation curves in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, step-type curve and fluctuated-type curve, are selected to verify the applicability of the exponential smoothing method. The results show that for the step-type curve, its error is usually small except for large-to-small turning point of deformation, where the curve peak forms, so the error becomes large; for the fluctuated-type curve, the exponential smoothing method reveals obvious lag characteristic and the lag time approximately equals to the chosen prediction time interval, so its applicability for landslide prediction is poor.