计及冰雪天气影响的风电场短期出力模型

针对冰雪天气对风电场实际运行的影响，提出了一种新的风电场短期出力模型。该模型考虑了风电机组和集电线路的积冰过程，基于现有的研究成果对叶片积冰情况下的风电机组有功出力模型进行了修正。同时考虑冰雪天气下风电场内设备的随机停运，对风电机组和集电线路在恶劣运行条件下的故障停运概率进行了估计，建立了与环境因素相依的时变停运概率模型。考虑尾流效应影响，对风电场内机组的状态进行分批次抽样，并结合机组出力水平和集电线路的抽样状态，计算风电场的出力。仿真结果表明所提的出力模型能够反映风电场在冰雪天气下短时间内的出力特性，适用于风电接入系统的短期可靠性评估。

A short-term output model of wind farm considering rain-snow-ice weather

Considering the impacts of rain-snow-ice weather on wind farm practical operation, this paper proposes a new short-term output model of wind farm. This model considers the ice accretion on wind turbines and transmission lines. The power output models of wind turbines with ice on blades are modified based on existing studies. The outage of facilities in wind farm is also considered in this model. The outage probability of wind turbines and transmission lines under bad conditions is estimated and a time varying model is established. Considering the wake effect, the states of wind turbines are sampled sequentially. Combined with the output level of wind turbines and the states of transmission lines, the power output of wind farm is calculated. Simulation result shows that the proposed model can reflect the short-term characteristics of wind farm output and can be used for short-term reliability assessment of power system.