| 极端气象条件下配电网大范围停电贝叶斯网络建模和停电概率预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈颖,刘冰倩,朱淑娟,李博达,李俊均.极端气象条件下配电网大范围停电贝叶斯网络建模和停电概率预测方法[J].供用电,2019,36(7):30-34,43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈颖 刘冰倩 朱淑娟 李博达 李俊均 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学电机系,电力系统国家重点实验室,北京 100084;国网福建省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,福建福州 350007;福建省高供电可靠性配电技术企业重点实验室,福建福州 350007 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家电网有限公司总部科技项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 极端气象事件可引发配电网大面积停电事故,造成严重的经济损失。合理评估和预测极端灾害引发停电风险是实施应急预防所需的关键技术。区别于针对单一设备的灾害停运模型,文章考虑灾后设备停运事件的时空相关性,利用历史灾损记录和灾害数值模拟数据,构建灾害时间贝叶斯网络模型,进而根据灾情快速推理配电网停电范围和停电概率。以IEEE14节点系统为测试对象,通过仿真算例验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。
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| 关 键 词： | 配电网 弹性 极端气象 历史数据仿真 贝叶斯网络 失电概率预测 |
Bayesian Network Modeling and Power Outage Probability Prediction Method for Large-scale Power Outages in Distribution Networks under Extreme Weather Conditions |
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| CHEN Ying,LIU Bingqian,ZHU Shujuan,LI Boda,LI Junjun.Bayesian Network Modeling and Power Outage Probability Prediction Method for Large-scale Power Outages in Distribution Networks under Extreme Weather Conditions[J].Distribution & Utilization,2019,36(7):30-34,43. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Ying LIU Bingqian ZHU Shujuan LI Boda LI Junjun |
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| Affiliation: | (China State Key Laboratory of Power System and Generation Equipment,Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350007,China;Fujian Provincial Enterprise Key Laboratory of High Reliable Electric Power Distribution Technology,Fuzhou 350007,China) |
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| Abstract: | CHEN Ying;LIU Bingqian;ZHU Shujuan;LI Boda;LI Junjun(China State Key Laboratory of Power System and Generation Equipment,Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350007,China;Fujian Provincial Enterprise Key Laboratory of High Reliable Electric Power Distribution Technology,Fuzhou 350007,China) |
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| Keywords: | distribution network resilience extreme weather historical data simulation Bayesian network outage probability prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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