考虑分布式光伏电源影响的负荷预测方法研究

目前已有越来越多的分布式光伏电源并网，并将通过配电网络进行传输。由于光伏电源自身具有随机性和群发性，将对配电网的规划设计，尤其是对负荷平衡和负荷预测造成显著影响。结合杭州电网的负荷特性以及杭州地区的光伏电源发电特性，分析研究了分布式光伏电源的有效削峰容量，给出了新的电力电量平衡以及负荷预测方法，可供后续开展配电网规划设计时参考。

Research on Power Load Forecasting Considering the Influence of Distributed PV Generation

Increased distributed PV generation becomes connected to the grid and transferred through the dis-tribution networks. PV generation itself is random and clustered, so it may have significant impact on plan-ning and design of distribution networks, especially load balance and load forecasting. Combining load char-acteristics of power networks and PV generation characteristics in Hangzhou , the paper investigates the effec-tive peak-shaving capacity and offers new methods for power balance and load forecasting, providing reference for distribution network planning and design in the future.