巴彦淖尔市水市场水权交易模型研究

本文引入复杂适应系统理论,对水权交易模型中的生产用水主体进行概化,建立了三层次的生产用水主体划分;将生产用水主体的行为简化为用水、买水、卖水、节水四个主要行为;采用经济学主体方程来决定生产用水主体各种行为的产生和选择;以区域经济效益最大为优化目标。将模型应用于水资源短缺的巴彦淖尔市,初步分析结果表明,构建的水权交易模型能够很好地分析区域总潜可交易水量,并为区域水市场可交易水量的确定和水权交易价格的制定提供科学依据。

Study on water right trade model for the water market of Bayannur city

The complex adaptive system theory was introduced to generalize production water agents into three levels in a water right trade model. The agents' activity was simplified with four major behaviors: water use, water buying, water selling and water saving, and they were determined by an economics agent equation. Maximum regional economic benefit is the target of optimization. This model was applied to the water market in Bayannur city that is facing a water shortage problem. The results indicate that it is effective in analysis of the potential water which can be traded and it supplies a decision support to determination and adjustment on water price in water market for water resource management sectors.