基于模糊层次分析的建筑物单体震害预测方法研究

建筑物的震害预测方法研究对震害防御和震后应急工作有着十分重要的意义，但随着结构类型和抗震规范的不断更新，当前的震害预测理论仍不完善。该文提出了一种基于模糊层次分析的建筑物单体震害预测方法。具体工作如下：1）通过研究一个城市或地区各类房屋建筑的地震易损性，计算得到该城市或地区建筑结构震害指数基准值；2）根据历史地震震害资料和震害预测资料，综合分析影响各类建筑结构震害的主要因素，利用模糊层次分析法计算得到各影响因素权重；3）通过考虑各影响因素中不同影响因子的平均震害指数的变化，得出其对震害指数的影响程度，给出影响因子修正系数；4）采用加权平均法计算得出单体结构震害指数，并给出单体结构破坏等级。利用该方法对汶川8.0级地震中数栋结构进行了验证，其破坏等级同地震现场房屋安全鉴定结果相符。

SEISMIC DAMAGE PREDICTION FOR A SINGLE BUILDING BASED ON A FUZZY ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY APPROACH

Theoretical research into earthquake damage prediction for buildings is of significance in earthquake damage prevention and earthquake emergency management. However, with the development of structural types and codes for aseismic design of buildings, the current theories for earthquake damage prediction are still imperfect. In this work, a method for single-building earthquake damage prediction based on a fuzzy analytical hierarchy approach is proposed. To begin with, the standard earthquake damage indices of buildings in one city, or region, are calculated by analyzing the seismic vulnerability of various types of buildings. Then, the main factors influencing the earthquake damage of buildings are analyzed according to the historical earthquake damage and earthquake damage prediction data. In addition, the weight values of these factors are obtained using a fuzzy analytical hierarchy approach. The relevant correction factors are obtained considering the variation of the average earthquake damage index under different factors. Finally, the earthquake damage index of a building is calculated using a weighted average method, then the earthquake damage grade of the building is obtained. Using this method, the earthquake damage indices of several buildings in Dujiangyan, Sichuan Province are calculated in the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. Study results show that these earthquake damage grades are consistent with the results of on-site safety assessments.