电力零售企业风险的解释结构模型研究

价格风险理论是当前电力零售企业风险理论的主要论题,用于解决短期或长期内由发电侧市场价格波动所产生的风险问题,但它忽略了其他风险因素,也不深究价格波动产生的原因.要对零售企业进行全面风险管理则需要风险的系统理论,就应当把产生电力零售企业风险的因素从由价格波动产生收益波动扩展到因参与电力零售市场交易活动而发生企业价值波动的所有影响因素.这一定义的扩展是迈向全面风险管理的第一步.基于此扩展的定义,作者运用解释结构模型化技术,从电力市场商业模式和风险环境的意识模型出发,构建了电力零售企业的风险系统结构模型.该风险结构模型可作为电力零售企业设计风险管理组织机构体系和制定风险战略的基本依据之一,为风险测量结构模型的开发提供了理论基础,其意义比单纯价格风险理论更广泛.

RESEARCH ON INTERPRATATIVE STRUCTURE MODELING FOR RISKS OF ELECTRICITY RETAIL MARKET

At present the price risk management theory is the main topic of risk theory for electricity retail enterprises and is used to solve risk problems caused by price volatility at power generation side in short or long term, but other risks are neglected and the reasons causing the price volatility are also not researched in detail. In order to overall manage the risks, the systemic risk theory is necessary for electricity retail enterprises, for this purpose, the definition of risk of electricity retailers is expanded from the income volatility caused by the price volatility to all the risk factors which lead to the enterprise value volatility when the enterprise takes part in the transactions in electricity retail market. The expansion of the definition is only the first step that forges ahead toward the whole risk management. Based on this expanded definition, adopting the interpretative structure modeling (ISM) technology and according to the commercial mode of electricity market and cognitional model of the risk environment, a systemic risk structure model for electricity retail enterprises is constructed. This risk structure model can be used as basic foundation in designing risk management system and working out risk strategy for electricity retailers, and provides theoretical basis in developing the structural model to meter the risks, therefore this systemic risk structure model is more significant than simple price risk theory.