| 混合门限自回归模型在长期水文预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李正最,吴雅琴.混合门限自回归模型在长期水文预报中的应用[J].江西水利科技,1993,19(4):309-314. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李正最 吴雅琴 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南省湘潭水文水资源勘测大队，湖南省湘潭水文水资源勘测大队 湘潭 411100，湘潭 411100 |
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| 摘 要： | 在长期水文预报中主要应用两类方法,它们是多元分析法和时间序列分析法,这两种方法各有其局限性;应用混合门限自回归模型模拟水文时间序列可以考虑诸多因素,能避免以上两方法的局限性,并在实践中得到检验.
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| 关 键 词： | 自回归 门限 数学模型 水文预报 |
Application of TARSO Model in Long-range Forecasting |
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| Li Zhengzui, Wu yaqin Xiangtan Investigation Team of Hydrolgy and Water Resources,Hunan Prvince,Xiangtan.Application of TARSO Model in Long-range Forecasting[J].Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology,1993,19(4):309-314. |
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| Authors: | Li Zhengzui Wu yaqin Xiangtan Investigation Team of Hydrolgy and Water Resources Hunan Prvince Xiangtan |
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| Affiliation: | Li Zhengzui, Wu yaqin Xiangtan Investigation Team of Hydrolgy and Water Resources,Hunan Prvince,Xiangtan,411000 |
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| Abstract: | The multivarate analysis and the time series analysis are two kinds of fundamental methods of long-range hydrological forecasting, but they have inherent limitations themselves. In this paper, the TARSO model is used to simulate hydrologic time series. Because many factors can be considered, it overcomes some deficiencys of the multivarate analysis and the time series analysis. At last, an example is given. |
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| Keywords: | autoregressive threshold mathmatical model long-range hydrological forecasting |
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