220kV变压器运维检修成本的灰色关联分析模型及计算

针对电力系统220 kV变压器运行现状以及缺陷故障检修数据,引入全寿命周期成本管理理念,对变压器的运维检修阶段进行分析与预测,并建立详细的数学模型.在满足变压器可靠性的前提下,充分考虑设备运行维护期间的人工成本、消除缺陷成本及检修成本等不确定因素,引入灰色系统理论及灰色关联分析,预测出变压器寿命周期中各故障的比例,结合其周期寿命内的检修数据,建立起不同冷却方式的220 kV变压器运维检修模型.最后以某省220 kV变电站变压器选型决策为例,验证该模型的有效性及实用性.该模型能够较为合理地反应变压器运行维护检修寿命期间各个阶段所对应的成本,对相关电力设备的检修成本策略的制定有一定的参考借鉴作用.

Grey relational analysis model and calculation of operation and maintenance cost for 220 kV transformer

According to operation situation and maintenance data of 220 kV transformers, the management concept of life cycle cost is introduced and the operation and maintenance period of transformer is deeply analyzed. The model of operation and maintenance cost for 220 kV transformers is finally established. In the premise of reliability, the inspection cost, defect eliminating cost and maintenance cost are taken into consideration. With the classified defect statistics for 220 kV transformers, the defect proportions of transformer main components are calculated based on the grey system theory and the grey correlation analysis. Combined with the statistics of the maintenance data, the cost model of operation and maintenance is established for 220 kV transformers cooled by different ways. The model is applied in a transformer of a 220 kV substation to verify its effectiveness and practical applicability. It can reflect the operation and maintenance costs of different life period for 220 kV transformers with reasonable, and it is useful to generate the strategy for repairing transformer.